Read the regime. Position for what follows.

Avoid the worst of the bears. You do not need to beat the bulls.

The market's best phase, the recovery, pays passive investors nothing new. It only digs them out of the hole the bear created. We call that dead capital time, and it is what our approach is designed to reduce.

Time spent by phase, S&P 500, January 1, 2000 to May 2026. The first two phases combine to 57% of the observed period.

A 30% loss needs a 43% gain to break even, because the base of the calculation changes.source and compliance review

Source: S&P 500 daily closing data. Bear market defined as a decline of 20% or more from a prior closing high.

One verdict, one position, every day.

Once CTM reads the regime, it sets a single position once a day — long, cash or short — and routes it to the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100.

Exposure ranges from short 100% to long 150%, with cash as a position in its own right.

Built by one architect. Refined for more than fifty years.

Jean-Pierre Fruchet built the first version of the model shortly after graduating from Harvard Business School in 1966, drawing on long-term market charts and the earliest applications of computing to investment research. The Consensus Timing Model is the product of that work: researched, tested and refined across multiple market cycles ever since, and updated as markets teach it something new.

Refinements are rules, not judgement calls: once live, the model applies them to every position.

What you have read above is the model. What follows is the account.

Since 2000, CTM has run as an actual account — the Live Managed Account — not a simulation. We report that live track record separately from the equity and digital-asset solutions built on the same signal, so what the model has actually done stays distinct from what any mandate is designed to do.

Our skill lies in choosing quality signals, designing the algorithm, trusting the system, and updating the model when market conditions change. No single signal decides, and no one overrides the rules on a hunch.